IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons#5 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BETBOOM#13 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
69%73%
Falcons · 12 mapsnearly even -4%BETBOOM · 7 maps
NukeBETBOOM pick
63%58%
Falcons · 4 mapsedge Falcons +5%BETBOOM · 8 maps
AncientFalcons pick
67%57%
Falcons · 8 mapsedge Falcons +10%BETBOOM · 3 maps
MirageBETBOOM ban
40%33%
Falcons · 6 mapsedge Falcons +7%BETBOOM · 5 maps
InfernoBETBOOM ban
43%50%
Falcons · 3 mapsedge BETBOOM +7%BETBOOM · 0 maps
AnubisFalcons ban
50%67%
Falcons · 0 mapsedge BETBOOM +17%BETBOOM · 2 maps
OverpassFalcons ban
50%40%
Falcons · 0 mapsedge Falcons +10%BETBOOM · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons remove Overpass
2. BanBETBOOM remove Inferno
3. PickFalcons take Ancient
4. PickBETBOOM take Nuke
5. BanBETBOOM remove Mirage
6. BanFalcons remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (69% / 73%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
Falcons 51%BETBOOM 49%
The model gave 51% on Falcons — the map was taken by BETBOOM.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
Falcons 63%BETBOOM 37%
The model gave 63% on Falcons — the map was taken by BETBOOM.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 77%
Series resultBETBOOM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2