PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons#5 in the world · win 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monte#23 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Monte pick
50%67%
Falcons · 2 mapsedge Monte +17%Monte · 2 maps
NukeMonte ban
40%33%
Falcons · 1 mapedge Falcons +7%Monte · 2 maps
AncientFalcons pick
60%60%
Falcons · 1 mapnearly even +0%Monte · 1 map
AnubisFalcons ban
50%60%
Falcons · 0 mapsedge Monte +10%Monte · 1 map
MirageMonte ban
60%50%
Falcons · 1 mapedge Falcons +10%Monte · 0 maps
OverpassFalcons ban
50%40%
Falcons · 0 mapsedge Falcons +10%Monte · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons remove Overpass
2. BanMonte remove Mirage
3. PickFalcons take Ancient
4. PickMonte take Dust2
5. BanMonte remove Nuke
6. BanFalcons remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Falcons 31%Monte 69%
The model gave 69% on Monte — the map was taken by Falcons.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
Falcons 53%Monte 47%
The model gave 53% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 75%
Series resultFalcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2