IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons#5 in the world · win 2:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vitality#2 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Falcons pick
67%62%
Falcons · 14 mapsedge Falcons +5%Vitality · 9 maps
MirageVitality pick
42%73%
Falcons · 8 mapsedge Vitality +31%Vitality · 7 maps
Nukepossible decider
56%70%
Falcons · 5 mapsedge Vitality +14%Vitality · 6 maps
AncientVitality ban
62%50%
Falcons · 9 mapsedge Falcons +12%Vitality · 0 maps
InfernoFalcons ban
50%57%
Falcons · 4 mapsedge Vitality +7%Vitality · 3 maps
AnubisVitality ban
60%38%
Falcons · 1 mapedge Falcons +22%Vitality · 4 maps
OverpassFalcons ban
50%67%
Falcons · 0 mapsedge Vitality +17%Vitality · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons remove Overpass
2. BanVitality remove Ancient
3. PickFalcons take Dust2
4. PickVitality take Mirage
5. BanVitality remove Anubis
6. BanFalcons remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (56% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:11
Falcons 74%Vitality 26%
The model gave 74% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
Falcons 40%Vitality 60%
The model gave 60% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Falcons 56%Vitality 44%
The model gave 56% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitality · 70%
Series resultFalcons 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3