Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
Famalicão#153 in the world · loss 11:13series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 11:13
Lazer Cats#117 in the world · win 13:11The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFamalicão ban
36%57%
Famalicão · 7 mapsedge Lazer Cats +21%Lazer Cats · 10 maps
Infernopossible decider
45%56%
Famalicão · 7 mapsedge Lazer Cats +11%Lazer Cats · 5 maps
Dust2Lazer Cats ban
50%38%
Famalicão · 6 mapsedge Famalicão +12%Lazer Cats · 4 maps
AnubisFamalicão ban
33%70%
Famalicão · 2 mapsedge Lazer Cats +37%Lazer Cats · 6 maps
MirageLazer Cats ban
60%44%
Famalicão · 1 mapedge Famalicão +16%Lazer Cats · 5 maps
CacheLazer Cats ban
33%50%
Famalicão · 5 mapsedge Lazer Cats +17%Lazer Cats · 0 maps
NukeFamalicão ban
50%43%
Famalicão · 0 mapsedge Famalicão +7%Lazer Cats · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFamalicão remove Anubis
2. BanLazer Cats remove Cache
3. BanFamalicão remove Nuke
4. BanLazer Cats remove Mirage
5. BanFamalicão remove Ancient
6. BanLazer Cats remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (45% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
Famalicão 30%Lazer Cats 70%
The model gave 70% on Lazer Cats — the map was taken by Lazer Cats.
Model check result
Model favoriteLazer Cats · 65%
Series resultLazer Cats 11:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1