LeonBet Masters Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Famalicão#153 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
33%22%
Famalicão · 2 mapsedge Famalicão +11%REVENIX · 5 maps
Dust2Famalicão pick
50%25%
Famalicão · 2 mapsedge Famalicão +25%REVENIX · 4 maps
AnubisREVENIX pick
50%43%
Famalicão · 0 mapsedge Famalicão +7%REVENIX · 3 maps
MirageFamalicão ban
60%33%
Famalicão · 1 mapedge Famalicão +27%REVENIX · 2 maps
CacheREVENIX ban
50%50%
Famalicão · 2 mapsnearly even +0%REVENIX · 0 maps
NukeFamalicão ban
50%50%
Famalicão · 0 mapsnearly even +0%REVENIX · 2 maps
InfernoREVENIX ban
40%50%
Famalicão · 1 mapedge REVENIX +10%REVENIX · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFamalicão remove Nuke
2. BanREVENIX remove Inferno
3. PickFamalicão take Dust2
4. PickREVENIX take Anubis
5. BanREVENIX remove Cache
6. BanFamalicão remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (33% / 22%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
Famalicão 77%REVENIX 23%
The model gave 77% on Famalicão — the map was taken by Famalicão.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
Famalicão 61%REVENIX 39%
The model gave 61% on Famalicão — the map was taken by REVENIX.
Anubisprediction missed13:16
Famalicão 57%REVENIX 43%
The model gave 57% on Famalicão — the map was taken by REVENIX.
Model check result
Model favoriteFamalicão · 57%
Series resultREVENIX 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3