ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
55%67%
FarmVille · 7 mapsedge Overtake Sector +12%Overtake Sector · 20 maps
InfernoFarmVille ban
27%53%
FarmVille · 11 mapsedge Overtake Sector +26%Overtake Sector · 15 maps
Dust2FarmVille pick
44%38%
FarmVille · 12 mapsedge FarmVille +6%Overtake Sector · 9 maps
AncientOvertake Sector ban
63%46%
FarmVille · 4 mapsedge FarmVille +17%Overtake Sector · 9 maps
CacheOvertake Sector ban
50%63%
FarmVille · 6 mapsedge Overtake Sector +13%Overtake Sector · 4 maps
AnubisFarmVille ban
60%50%
FarmVille · 1 mapedge FarmVille +10%Overtake Sector · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFarmVille remove Anubis
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Ancient
3. PickFarmVille take Dust2
4. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Cache
6. BanFarmVille remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
FarmVille 50%Overtake Sector 50%
The model gave 50% on FarmVille — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 57%
Series resultOvertake Sector 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1