ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Reign Above#247 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
DefaultReign Above ban
67%60%
FarmVille · 2 mapsedge FarmVille +7%Reign Above · 1 map
AncientFarmVille ban
60%50%
FarmVille · 1 mapedge FarmVille +10%Reign Above · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFarmVille remove Ancient
2. BanReign Above remove Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
FarmVille 47%Reign Above 53%
The model gave 53% on Reign Above — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
FarmVille 53%Reign Above 47%
The model gave 53% on FarmVille — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Model check result
Model favoriteFarmVille · 59%
Series resultFarmVille 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2