Thunderpick World Championship 2026 North America · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shimmer#226 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageShimmer pick
50%50%
FarmVille · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Shimmer · 2 maps
AncientShimmer ban
50%40%
FarmVille · 2 mapsedge FarmVille +10%Shimmer · 1 map
Dust2FarmVille pick
43%50%
FarmVille · 3 mapsedge Shimmer +7%Shimmer · 0 maps
DefaultShimmer ban
67%50%
FarmVille · 2 mapsedge FarmVille +17%Shimmer · 0 maps
NukeFarmVille ban
50%60%
FarmVille · 0 mapsedge Shimmer +10%Shimmer · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFarmVille remove Nuke
2. BanShimmer remove Default
3. PickFarmVille take Dust2
4. PickShimmer take Mirage
5. BanShimmer remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
FarmVille 47%Shimmer 53%
The model gave 53% on Shimmer — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Dust2prediction missed16:14
FarmVille 46%Shimmer 54%
The model gave 54% on Shimmer — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Model check result
Model favoriteFarmVille · 59%
Series resultFarmVille 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2