CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fathomloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
F5#208 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientF5 pick
60%60%
Fathom · 1 mapnearly even +0%F5 · 1 map
MirageFathom ban
50%50%
Fathom · 0 mapsnearly even +0%F5 · 2 maps
AnubisF5 ban
60%50%
Fathom · 1 mapedge Fathom +10%F5 · 0 maps
Dust2Fathom pick
50%40%
Fathom · 0 mapsedge Fathom +10%F5 · 1 map
InfernoF5 ban
50%60%
Fathom · 0 mapsedge F5 +10%F5 · 1 map
NukeFathom ban
50%40%
Fathom · 0 mapsedge Fathom +10%F5 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFathom remove Nuke
2. BanF5 remove Anubis
3. PickFathom take Dust2
4. PickF5 take Ancient
5. BanF5 remove Inferno
6. BanFathom remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
Fathom 63%F5 37%
The model gave 63% on Fathom — the map was taken by F5.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
Fathom 47%F5 53%
The model gave 53% on F5 — the map was taken by F5.
Model check result
Model favoriteF5 · 54%
Series resultF5 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2