ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FAVBET#105 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:1
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFAVBET ban
50%24%
FAVBET · 0 mapsedge FAVBET +26%MOUZ NXT · 13 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%55%
FAVBET · 4 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +5%MOUZ NXT · 7 maps
Dust2FAVBET ban
50%46%
FAVBET · 0 mapsnearly even +4%MOUZ NXT · 9 maps
DefaultMOUZ NXT pick
27%60%
FAVBET · 7 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +33%MOUZ NXT · 1 map
OverpassMOUZ NXT ban
67%29%
FAVBET · 2 mapsedge FAVBET +38%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
40%43%
FAVBET · 1 mapnearly even -3%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
CacheFAVBET pick
50%63%
FAVBET · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +13%MOUZ NXT · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFAVBET remove Mirage
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Overpass
3. PickFAVBET take Cache
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Default
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
6. BanFAVBET remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (50% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
FAVBET 20%MOUZ NXT 80%
The model gave 80% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoriteFAVBET · 52%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1