Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO3
result vs prediction
FaZe#14 in the world · win 2:1series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNAVI Junior pick
50%69%
FaZe · 6 mapsedge NAVI Junior +19%NAVI Junior · 22 maps
Dust2possible decider
40%44%
FaZe · 6 mapsnearly even -4%NAVI Junior · 21 map
AnubisFaZe ban
40%65%
FaZe · 1 mapedge NAVI Junior +25%NAVI Junior · 19 maps
AncientNAVI Junior ban
42%27%
FaZe · 8 mapsedge FaZe +15%NAVI Junior · 11 maps
CacheNAVI Junior ban
62%30%
FaZe · 9 mapsedge FaZe +32%NAVI Junior · 6 maps
NukeFaZe pick
70%38%
FaZe · 6 mapsedge FaZe +32%NAVI Junior · 9 maps
DefaultFaZe ban
50%57%
FaZe · 0 mapsedge NAVI Junior +7%NAVI Junior · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFaZe remove Anubis
2. BanNAVI Junior remove Cache
3. PickFaZe take Nuke
4. PickNAVI Junior take Mirage
5. BanNAVI Junior remove Ancient
6. BanFaZe remove Default
DeciderDust2 (40% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct9:13
FaZe 24%NAVI Junior 76%
The model gave 76% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
FaZe 81%NAVI Junior 19%
The model gave 81% on FaZe — the map was taken by FaZe.
Dust2prediction missed19:15
FaZe 46%NAVI Junior 54%
The model gave 54% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by FaZe.
Model check result
Model favoriteFaZe · 88%
Series resultFaZe 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3