ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fire Flux#103 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PCIFIC#135 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Fire Flux pick
53%46%
Fire Flux · 11 mapsedge Fire Flux +7%PCIFIC · 9 maps
MirageFire Flux ban
40%56%
Fire Flux · 6 mapsedge PCIFIC +16%PCIFIC · 5 maps
AnubisPCIFIC ban
64%33%
Fire Flux · 7 mapsedge Fire Flux +31%PCIFIC · 2 maps
InfernoPCIFIC pick
56%57%
Fire Flux · 5 mapsnearly even -1%PCIFIC · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%60%
Fire Flux · 6 mapsedge PCIFIC +10%PCIFIC · 1 map
NukeFire Flux ban
63%60%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsnearly even +3%PCIFIC · 1 map
AncientPCIFIC ban
57%50%
Fire Flux · 3 mapsedge Fire Flux +7%PCIFIC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
2. BanPCIFIC remove Ancient
3. PickFire Flux take Dust2
4. PickPCIFIC take Inferno
5. BanPCIFIC remove Anubis
6. BanFire Flux remove Mirage
DeciderCache (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct10:13
Fire Flux 43%PCIFIC 57%
The model gave 57% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Dust2prediction correct16:13
Fire Flux 54%PCIFIC 46%
The model gave 54% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Infernoprediction correct3:13
Fire Flux 48%PCIFIC 52%
The model gave 52% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Model check result
Model favoritePCIFIC · 64%
Series resultPCIFIC 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3