CIS Esports League CyberClash Season 2 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Fire Flux#100 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PRIVATE#51 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
56%70%
Fire Flux · 23 mapsedge PRIVATE +14%PRIVATE · 6 maps
MiragePRIVATE pick
48%67%
Fire Flux · 17 mapsedge PRIVATE +19%PRIVATE · 8 maps
AnubisPRIVATE ban
67%57%
Fire Flux · 20 mapsedge Fire Flux +10%PRIVATE · 3 maps
CacheFire Flux pick
65%30%
Fire Flux · 16 mapsedge Fire Flux +35%PRIVATE · 6 maps
NukeFire Flux ban
44%50%
Fire Flux · 14 mapsedge PRIVATE +6%PRIVATE · 4 maps
InfernoPRIVATE ban
67%50%
Fire Flux · 14 mapsedge Fire Flux +17%PRIVATE · 0 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
25%70%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsedge PRIVATE +45%PRIVATE · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
2. BanPRIVATE remove Inferno
3. PickFire Flux take Cache
4. PickPRIVATE take Mirage
5. BanPRIVATE remove Anubis
6. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (56% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
Fire Flux 29%PRIVATE 71%
The model gave 71% on PRIVATE — the map was taken by PRIVATE.
Cacheprediction missed4:13
Fire Flux 83%PRIVATE 17%
The model gave 83% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by PRIVATE.
Model check result
Model favoritePRIVATE · 65%
Series resultPRIVATE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2