ESEA Season 57 Europe Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Fire Flux#103 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WBT#108 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisFire Flux pick
78%60%
Fire Flux · 5 mapsedge Fire Flux +18%WBT · 1 map
AncientWBT ban
57%33%
Fire Flux · 3 mapsedge Fire Flux +24%WBT · 2 maps
Dust2WBT ban
38%60%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsedge WBT +22%WBT · 1 map
MirageWBT pick
40%67%
Fire Flux · 1 mapedge WBT +27%WBT · 2 maps
NukeFire Flux ban
60%40%
Fire Flux · 1 mapedge Fire Flux +20%WBT · 1 map
OverpassFire Flux ban
50%67%
Fire Flux · 0 mapsedge WBT +17%WBT · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFire Flux remove Overpass
2. BanWBT remove Ancient
3. PickFire Flux take Anubis
4. PickWBT take Mirage
5. BanWBT remove Dust2
6. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
Fire Flux 23%WBT 77%
The model gave 77% on WBT — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Dust2prediction missed13:4
Fire Flux 31%WBT 69%
The model gave 69% on WBT — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 55%
Series resultFire Flux 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2