FRAG 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fisher College#85 in the world · win 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LAG#95 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoLAG ban
50%33%
Fisher College · 0 mapsedge Fisher College +17%LAG · 2 maps
AncientFisher College pick
50%40%
Fisher College · 0 mapsedge Fisher College +10%LAG · 1 map
MirageFisher College ban
50%60%
Fisher College · 0 mapsedge LAG +10%LAG · 1 map
NukeLAG pick
50%60%
Fisher College · 0 mapsedge LAG +10%LAG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFisher College remove Mirage
2. BanLAG remove Inferno
3. PickFisher College take Ancient
4. PickLAG take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:3
Fisher College 64%LAG 36%
The model gave 64% on Fisher College — the map was taken by Fisher College.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
Fisher College 43%LAG 57%
The model gave 57% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Fisher College 60%LAG 40%
The model gave 60% on Fisher College — the map was taken by Fisher College.
Model check result
Model favoriteFisher College · 55%
Series resultFisher College 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3