FiRe Last Chance 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fluxo#63 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BBARCA#95 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageBARCA ban
71%33%
Fluxo · 17 mapsedge Fluxo +38%BARCA · 2 maps
Dust2Fluxo ban
56%38%
Fluxo · 12 mapsedge Fluxo +18%BARCA · 4 maps
InfernoBARCA pick
53%71%
Fluxo · 13 mapsedge BARCA +18%BARCA · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
56%67%
Fluxo · 12 mapsedge BARCA +11%BARCA · 2 maps
NukeFluxo pick
56%50%
Fluxo · 14 mapsedge Fluxo +6%BARCA · 0 maps
AnubisBARCA ban
43%50%
Fluxo · 10 mapsedge BARCA +7%BARCA · 0 maps
AncientFluxo ban
50%43%
Fluxo · 0 mapsedge Fluxo +7%BARCA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Ancient
2. BanBARCA remove Mirage
3. PickFluxo take Nuke
4. PickBARCA take Inferno
5. BanBARCA remove Anubis
6. BanFluxo remove Dust2
DeciderCache (56% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct17:19
Fluxo 29%BARCA 71%
The model gave 71% on BARCA — the map was taken by BARCA.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
Fluxo 85%BARCA 15%
The model gave 85% on Fluxo — the map was taken by BARCA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 59%
Series resultBARCA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2