ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fluxo#56 in the world · win 2:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFluxo pick
63%40%
Fluxo · 20 mapsedge Fluxo +23%ex-MIBR Academy · 1 map
Dust2Fluxo ban
50%50%
Fluxo · 12 mapsnearly even +0%ex-MIBR Academy · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
67%57%
Fluxo · 8 mapsedge Fluxo +10%ex-MIBR Academy · 3 maps
Infernoex-MIBR Academy ban
46%50%
Fluxo · 9 mapsnearly even -4%ex-MIBR Academy · 0 maps
Anubisex-MIBR Academy pick
36%60%
Fluxo · 7 mapsedge ex-MIBR Academy +24%ex-MIBR Academy · 1 map
Cacheex-MIBR Academy ban
56%50%
Fluxo · 5 mapsedge Fluxo +6%ex-MIBR Academy · 0 maps
AncientFluxo ban
40%67%
Fluxo · 1 mapedge ex-MIBR Academy +27%ex-MIBR Academy · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Ancient
2. Banex-MIBR Academy remove Cache
3. PickFluxo take Nuke
4. Pickex-MIBR Academy take Anubis
5. Banex-MIBR Academy remove Inferno
6. BanFluxo remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (67% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
Fluxo 57%ex-MIBR Academy 43%
The model gave 57% on Fluxo — the map was taken by ex-MIBR Academy.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
Fluxo 53%ex-MIBR Academy 47%
The model gave 53% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
Fluxo 71%ex-MIBR Academy 29%
The model gave 71% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 79%
Series resultFluxo 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3