LeonBet Masters Season 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
Fluxo#56 in the world · win 13:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 13:1
Famalicão#153 in the world · loss 1:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFamalicão ban
63%50%
Fluxo · 28 mapsedge Fluxo +13%Famalicão · 0 maps
MirageFamalicão ban
68%60%
Fluxo · 18 mapsedge Fluxo +8%Famalicão · 1 map
Dust2possible decider
53%50%
Fluxo · 15 mapsnearly even +3%Famalicão · 2 maps
InfernoFamalicão ban
56%40%
Fluxo · 14 mapsedge Fluxo +16%Famalicão · 1 map
CacheFluxo ban
47%60%
Fluxo · 11 mapsedge Famalicão +13%Famalicão · 1 map
AnubisFluxo ban
43%50%
Fluxo · 10 mapsedge Famalicão +7%Famalicão · 0 maps
AncientFluxo ban
50%33%
Fluxo · 0 mapsedge Fluxo +17%Famalicão · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Ancient
2. BanFamalicão remove Nuke
3. BanFluxo remove Anubis
4. BanFamalicão remove Mirage
5. BanFluxo remove Cache
6. BanFamalicão remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (53% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:1
Fluxo 37%Famalicão 63%
The model gave 63% on Famalicão — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 68%
Series resultFluxo 13:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1