Thunderpick World Championship 2026 South America Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fluxo#56 in the world · win 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Keyd Stars#155 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Keyd Stars pick
44%56%
Fluxo · 5 mapsedge Keyd Stars +12%Keyd Stars · 14 maps
Ancientpossible decider
29%54%
Fluxo · 3 mapsedge Keyd Stars +25%Keyd Stars · 9 maps
NukeFluxo ban
40%42%
Fluxo · 1 mapnearly even -2%Keyd Stars · 8 maps
MirageKeyd Stars ban
60%50%
Fluxo · 1 mapedge Fluxo +10%Keyd Stars · 6 maps
AnubisFluxo pick
50%63%
Fluxo · 2 mapsedge Keyd Stars +13%Keyd Stars · 4 maps
InfernoKeyd Stars ban
43%50%
Fluxo · 3 mapsedge Keyd Stars +7%Keyd Stars · 0 maps
OverpassFluxo ban
50%50%
Fluxo · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Keyd Stars · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Overpass
2. BanKeyd Stars remove Inferno
3. PickFluxo take Anubis
4. PickKeyd Stars take Dust2
5. BanKeyd Stars remove Mirage
6. BanFluxo remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (29% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Fluxo 57%Keyd Stars 43%
The model gave 57% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Fluxo 51%Keyd Stars 49%
The model gave 51% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 53%
Series resultFluxo 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2