LeonBet Masters Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fluxo#56 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SAW#61 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFluxo pick
63%63%
Fluxo · 28 mapsnearly even +0%SAW · 4 maps
InfernoSAW pick
56%77%
Fluxo · 14 mapsedge SAW +21%SAW · 9 maps
MirageSAW ban
72%67%
Fluxo · 21 mapedge Fluxo +5%SAW · 2 maps
Dust2SAW ban
55%44%
Fluxo · 16 mapsedge Fluxo +11%SAW · 5 maps
Cachepossible decider
53%63%
Fluxo · 13 mapsedge SAW +10%SAW · 4 maps
AnubisFluxo ban
47%44%
Fluxo · 11 mapsnearly even +3%SAW · 5 maps
AncientFluxo ban
50%55%
Fluxo · 0 mapsedge SAW +5%SAW · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Ancient
2. BanSAW remove Mirage
3. PickFluxo take Nuke
4. PickSAW take Inferno
5. BanSAW remove Dust2
6. BanFluxo remove Anubis
DeciderCache (53% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct7:13
Fluxo 37%SAW 63%
The model gave 63% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
Fluxo 63%SAW 37%
The model gave 63% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
Fluxo 50%SAW 50%
The model gave 50% on Fluxo — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 56%
Series resultSAW 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3