FiRe Last Chance 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fluxo#63 in the world · win 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ShindeN#57 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFluxo pick
70%31%
Fluxo · 16 mapsedge Fluxo +39%ShindeN · 12 maps
NukeShindeN pick
58%56%
Fluxo · 15 mapsnearly even +2%ShindeN · 12 maps
Dust2Fluxo ban
50%53%
Fluxo · 12 mapsnearly even -3%ShindeN · 13 maps
Infernopossible decider
59%50%
Fluxo · 13 mapsedge Fluxo +9%ShindeN · 12 maps
CacheShindeN ban
56%45%
Fluxo · 12 mapsedge Fluxo +11%ShindeN · 7 maps
AnubisShindeN ban
43%50%
Fluxo · 10 mapsedge ShindeN +7%ShindeN · 0 maps
AncientFluxo ban
50%56%
Fluxo · 0 mapsedge ShindeN +6%ShindeN · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Ancient
2. BanShindeN remove Anubis
3. PickFluxo take Mirage
4. PickShindeN take Nuke
5. BanShindeN remove Cache
6. BanFluxo remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (59% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
Fluxo 56%ShindeN 44%
The model gave 56% on Fluxo — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Fluxo 85%ShindeN 15%
The model gave 85% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Fluxo 47%ShindeN 53%
The model gave 53% on ShindeN — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 53%
Series resultFluxo 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3