Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fluxo#56 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ShindeN#77 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFluxo pick
63%60%
Fluxo · 28 mapsnearly even +3%ShindeN · 11 maps
InfernoShindeN pick
53%61%
Fluxo · 13 mapsedge ShindeN +8%ShindeN · 14 maps
Miragepossible decider
67%38%
Fluxo · 17 mapsedge Fluxo +29%ShindeN · 9 maps
Dust2Fluxo ban
53%62%
Fluxo · 15 mapsedge ShindeN +9%ShindeN · 9 maps
CacheShindeN ban
47%36%
Fluxo · 11 mapsedge Fluxo +11%ShindeN · 7 maps
AnubisShindeN ban
43%50%
Fluxo · 10 mapsedge ShindeN +7%ShindeN · 0 maps
AncientFluxo ban
50%58%
Fluxo · 0 mapsedge ShindeN +8%ShindeN · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Ancient
2. BanShindeN remove Anubis
3. PickFluxo take Nuke
4. PickShindeN take Inferno
5. BanShindeN remove Cache
6. BanFluxo remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (67% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
Fluxo 39%ShindeN 61%
The model gave 61% on ShindeN — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Fluxo 78%ShindeN 22%
The model gave 78% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 56%
Series resultFluxo 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2