DFRAG HyperX Nationals 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
FlyQuest#67 in the world · win 13:1series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 13:1
DXA#220 in the world · loss 1:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisDXA ban
63%29%
FlyQuest · 4 mapsedge FlyQuest +34%DXA · 3 maps
Dust2DXA ban
50%43%
FlyQuest · 4 mapsedge FlyQuest +7%DXA · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%57%
FlyQuest · 4 mapsedge DXA +7%DXA · 3 maps
AncientFlyQuest ban
43%57%
FlyQuest · 3 mapsedge DXA +14%DXA · 3 maps
OverpassFlyQuest ban
50%57%
FlyQuest · 0 mapsedge DXA +7%DXA · 3 maps
MirageDXA ban
33%50%
FlyQuest · 2 mapsedge DXA +17%DXA · 0 maps
NukeFlyQuest ban
50%50%
FlyQuest · 2 mapsnearly even +0%DXA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFlyQuest remove Overpass
2. BanDXA remove Mirage
3. BanFlyQuest remove Nuke
4. BanDXA remove Dust2
5. BanFlyQuest remove Ancient
6. BanDXA remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:1
FlyQuest 43%DXA 57%
The model gave 57% on DXA — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlyQuest · 81%
Series resultFlyQuest 13:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1