ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FlyQuest#67 in the world · win 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rooster#196 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisFlyQuest pick
67%56%
FlyQuest · 8 mapsedge FlyQuest +11%Rooster · 5 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%50%
FlyQuest · 5 mapsedge FlyQuest +17%Rooster · 6 maps
Dust2Rooster ban
73%43%
FlyQuest · 7 mapsedge FlyQuest +30%Rooster · 3 maps
NukeFlyQuest ban
71%44%
FlyQuest · 3 mapsedge FlyQuest +27%Rooster · 5 maps
CacheRooster pick
75%67%
FlyQuest · 4 mapsedge FlyQuest +8%Rooster · 2 maps
MirageFlyQuest ban
50%44%
FlyQuest · 0 mapsedge FlyQuest +6%Rooster · 5 maps
AncientRooster ban
50%50%
FlyQuest · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Rooster · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFlyQuest remove Mirage
2. BanRooster remove Ancient
3. PickFlyQuest take Anubis
4. PickRooster take Cache
5. BanRooster remove Dust2
6. BanFlyQuest remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:8
FlyQuest 64%Rooster 36%
The model gave 64% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Nukeprediction correct13:3
FlyQuest 73%Rooster 27%
The model gave 73% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlyQuest · 63%
Series resultFlyQuest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2