DFRAG Invitational 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
FlyQuest#66 in the world · win 2:1series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rooster#167 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoFlyQuest pick
79%43%
FlyQuest · 15 mapsedge FlyQuest +36%Rooster · 10 maps
AnubisRooster pick
69%57%
FlyQuest · 9 mapsedge FlyQuest +12%Rooster · 10 maps
Dust2Rooster ban
80%43%
FlyQuest · 11 mapsedge FlyQuest +37%Rooster · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
78%73%
FlyQuest · 5 mapsedge FlyQuest +5%Rooster · 7 maps
NukeFlyQuest ban
67%45%
FlyQuest · 2 mapsedge FlyQuest +22%Rooster · 7 maps
MirageFlyQuest ban
50%58%
FlyQuest · 0 mapsedge Rooster +8%Rooster · 8 maps
AncientRooster ban
50%50%
FlyQuest · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Rooster · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFlyQuest remove Mirage
2. BanRooster remove Ancient
3. PickFlyQuest take Inferno
4. PickRooster take Anubis
5. BanRooster remove Dust2
6. BanFlyQuest remove Nuke
DeciderCache (78% / 73%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
FlyQuest 60%Rooster 40%
The model gave 60% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
FlyQuest 85%Rooster 15%
The model gave 85% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by Rooster.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
FlyQuest 84%Rooster 16%
The model gave 84% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlyQuest · 81%
Series resultFlyQuest 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3