DFRAG Invitational 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
FlyQuest#66 in the world · win 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Staquedloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoFlyQuest pick
78%43%
FlyQuest · 14 mapsedge FlyQuest +35%Staqued · 3 maps
Dust2possible decider
80%40%
FlyQuest · 11 mapsedge FlyQuest +40%Staqued · 1 map
AnubisStaqued ban
69%50%
FlyQuest · 9 mapsedge FlyQuest +19%Staqued · 0 maps
AncientFlyQuest ban
44%43%
FlyQuest · 5 mapsnearly even +1%Staqued · 3 maps
CacheStaqued ban
78%33%
FlyQuest · 5 mapsedge FlyQuest +45%Staqued · 2 maps
DefaultStaqued pick
50%50%
FlyQuest · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Staqued · 0 maps
NukeFlyQuest ban
67%50%
FlyQuest · 2 mapsedge FlyQuest +17%Staqued · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFlyQuest remove Nuke
2. BanStaqued remove Anubis
3. PickFlyQuest take Inferno
4. PickStaqued take Default
5. BanStaqued remove Cache
6. BanFlyQuest remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (80% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
FlyQuest 49%Staqued 51%
The model gave 51% on Staqued — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
FlyQuest 84%Staqued 16%
The model gave 84% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlyQuest · 78%
Series resultFlyQuest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2