?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FlyQuest#67 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisFlyQuest pick
69%67%
FlyQuest · 9 mapsnearly even +2%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 5 maps
Dust2possible decider
73%67%
FlyQuest · 7 mapsedge FlyQuest +6%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 5 maps
InfernoTHUNDER dOWNUNDER pick
67%67%
FlyQuest · 5 mapsnearly even +0%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 5 maps
NukeFlyQuest ban
75%56%
FlyQuest · 4 mapsedge FlyQuest +19%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 5 maps
CacheTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
75%50%
FlyQuest · 4 mapsedge FlyQuest +25%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 maps
AncientFlyQuest ban
50%60%
FlyQuest · 2 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +10%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 map
DefaultTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%50%
FlyQuest · 2 mapsnearly even +0%THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFlyQuest remove Ancient
2. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Default
3. PickFlyQuest take Anubis
4. PickTHUNDER dOWNUNDER take Inferno
5. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Cache
6. BanFlyQuest remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (73% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:2
FlyQuest 53%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 47%
The model gave 53% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
FlyQuest 37%THUNDER dOWNUNDER 63%
The model gave 63% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlyQuest · 70%
Series resultFlyQuest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2