BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernofnatic pick
63%63%
fnatic · 4 mapsnearly even +0%ex-Zero Tenacity · 4 maps
Miragepossible decider
44%43%
fnatic · 5 mapsnearly even +1%ex-Zero Tenacity · 3 maps
Dust2ex-Zero Tenacity pick
40%56%
fnatic · 1 mapedge ex-Zero Tenacity +16%ex-Zero Tenacity · 5 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%29%
fnatic · 2 mapsedge fnatic +21%ex-Zero Tenacity · 3 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%56%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +6%ex-Zero Tenacity · 5 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%50%
fnatic · 2 mapsnearly even +0%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
Defaultfnatic ban
50%60%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +10%ex-Zero Tenacity · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
3. Pickfnatic take Inferno
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Dust2
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
6. Banfnatic remove Default
DeciderMirage (44% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed16:12
fnatic 47%ex-Zero Tenacity 53%
The model gave 53% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by fnatic.
Anubisprediction missed7:13
fnatic 74%ex-Zero Tenacity 26%
The model gave 74% on fnatic — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Dust2prediction missed16:14
fnatic 35%ex-Zero Tenacity 65%
The model gave 65% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 75%
Series resultfnatic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3