BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#38 in the world · win 2:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%50%
fnatic · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ex-Zero Tenacity · 2 maps
Nukeex-Zero Tenacity pick
50%50%
fnatic · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ex-Zero Tenacity · 2 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%40%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge fnatic +10%ex-Zero Tenacity · 1 map
Infernofnatic ban
50%60%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +10%ex-Zero Tenacity · 1 map
Miragefnatic pick
50%40%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge fnatic +10%ex-Zero Tenacity · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Inferno
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
3. Pickfnatic take Mirage
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Nuke
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed16:12
fnatic 37%ex-Zero Tenacity 63%
The model gave 63% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by fnatic.
Anubisprediction missed7:13
fnatic 63%ex-Zero Tenacity 37%
The model gave 63% on fnatic — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Dust2prediction correct16:14
fnatic 50%ex-Zero Tenacity 50%
The model gave 50% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 75%
Series resultfnatic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3