Stake Pulse Beat III · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HOTU#41 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cachefnatic pick
80%61%
fnatic · 16 mapsedge fnatic +19%HOTU · 24 maps
Ancientfnatic ban
62%61%
fnatic · 17 mapsnearly even +1%HOTU · 14 maps
Dust2HOTU pick
33%68%
fnatic · 8 mapsedge HOTU +35%HOTU · 21 map
Anubispossible decider
71%59%
fnatic · 10 mapsedge fnatic +12%HOTU · 18 maps
MirageHOTU ban
40%63%
fnatic · 11 mapsedge HOTU +23%HOTU · 12 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
63%40%
fnatic · 12 mapsedge fnatic +23%HOTU · 1 map
Nukefnatic ban
50%63%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge HOTU +13%HOTU · 12 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanHOTU remove Inferno
3. Pickfnatic take Cache
4. PickHOTU take Dust2
5. BanHOTU remove Mirage
6. Banfnatic remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (71% / 59%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
fnatic 54%HOTU 46%
The model gave 54% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
fnatic 17%HOTU 83%
The model gave 83% on HOTU — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 53%
Series resultfnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2