Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Iberian Soul#57 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
72%53%
fnatic · 14 mapsedge fnatic +19%Iberian Soul · 11 maps
Cachefnatic pick
76%33%
fnatic · 13 mapsedge fnatic +43%Iberian Soul · 5 maps
InfernoIberian Soul pick
60%64%
fnatic · 6 mapsnearly even -4%Iberian Soul · 7 maps
Miragefnatic ban
33%56%
fnatic · 8 mapsedge Iberian Soul +23%Iberian Soul · 5 maps
AnubisIberian Soul ban
79%67%
fnatic · 10 mapsedge fnatic +12%Iberian Soul · 2 maps
Dust2Iberian Soul ban
50%50%
fnatic · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Iberian Soul · 0 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%63%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge Iberian Soul +13%Iberian Soul · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanIberian Soul remove Dust2
3. Pickfnatic take Cache
4. PickIberian Soul take Inferno
5. BanIberian Soul remove Anubis
6. Banfnatic remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (72% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:11
fnatic 43%Iberian Soul 57%
The model gave 57% on Iberian Soul — the map was taken by fnatic.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
fnatic 88%Iberian Soul 12%
The model gave 88% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 56%
Series resultfnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2