Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Metizport#52 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Anubispossible decider
53%60%
fnatic · 13 mapsedge Metizport +7%Metizport · 1 map
Dust2Metizport ban
56%50%
fnatic · 12 mapsedge fnatic +6%Metizport · 0 maps
Miragefnatic ban
67%63%
fnatic · 8 mapsnearly even +4%Metizport · 4 maps
AncientMetizport ban
67%50%
fnatic · 8 mapsedge fnatic +17%Metizport · 0 maps
Infernofnatic pick
80%50%
fnatic · 6 mapsedge fnatic +30%Metizport · 2 maps
OverpassMetizport pick
33%56%
fnatic · 2 mapsedge Metizport +23%Metizport · 5 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%56%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge Metizport +6%Metizport · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanMetizport remove Dust2
3. Pickfnatic take Inferno
4. PickMetizport take Overpass
5. BanMetizport remove Ancient
6. Banfnatic remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (53% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed2:13
fnatic 69%Metizport 31%
The model gave 69% on fnatic — the map was taken by Metizport.
Anubisprediction missed13:8
fnatic 40%Metizport 60%
The model gave 60% on Metizport — the map was taken by fnatic.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
fnatic 55%Metizport 45%
The model gave 55% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoriteMetizport · 60%
Series resultfnatic 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3