Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
72%52%
fnatic · 14 mapsedge fnatic +20%Nemesis · 19 maps
Dust2Nemesis pick
50%67%
fnatic · 8 mapsedge Nemesis +17%Nemesis · 14 maps
Cachefnatic pick
78%64%
fnatic · 14 mapsedge fnatic +14%Nemesis · 7 maps
Infernofnatic ban
64%59%
fnatic · 7 mapsedge fnatic +5%Nemesis · 13 maps
MirageNemesis ban
33%46%
fnatic · 8 mapsedge Nemesis +13%Nemesis · 9 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
79%50%
fnatic · 10 mapsedge fnatic +29%Nemesis · 0 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%62%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +12%Nemesis · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanNemesis remove Anubis
3. Pickfnatic take Cache
4. PickNemesis take Dust2
5. BanNemesis remove Mirage
6. Banfnatic remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (72% / 52%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
fnatic 31%Nemesis 69%
The model gave 69% on Nemesis — the map was taken by fnatic.
Cacheprediction missed5:13
fnatic 69%Nemesis 31%
The model gave 69% on fnatic — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Infernoprediction missed9:13
fnatic 55%Nemesis 45%
The model gave 55% on fnatic — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 58%
Series resultNemesis 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3