Stake Ranked Episode 4 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:1series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Teletubisie#261 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientfnatic pick
71%50%
fnatic · 10 mapsedge fnatic +21%Teletubisie · 0 maps
AnubisTeletubisie ban
69%50%
fnatic · 9 mapsedge fnatic +19%Teletubisie · 0 maps
Dust2fnatic ban
67%50%
fnatic · 8 mapsedge fnatic +17%Teletubisie · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
64%50%
fnatic · 7 mapsedge fnatic +14%Teletubisie · 0 maps
Miragefnatic ban
56%50%
fnatic · 5 mapsedge fnatic +6%Teletubisie · 0 maps
InfernoTeletubisie ban
71%50%
fnatic · 3 mapsedge fnatic +21%Teletubisie · 0 maps
OverpassTeletubisie pick
40%50%
fnatic · 1 mapedge Teletubisie +10%Teletubisie · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Mirage
2. BanTeletubisie remove Inferno
3. Pickfnatic take Ancient
4. PickTeletubisie take Overpass
5. BanTeletubisie remove Anubis
6. Banfnatic remove Dust2
DeciderCache (64% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
fnatic 53%Teletubisie 47%
The model gave 53% on fnatic — the map was taken by Teletubisie.
Cacheprediction correct13:8
fnatic 66%Teletubisie 34%
The model gave 66% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Anubisprediction correct13:2
fnatic 69%Teletubisie 31%
The model gave 69% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 85%
Series resultfnatic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3