Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#40 in the world · win 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1win#38 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust21win pick
43%62%
FOKUS · 10 mapsedge 1win +19%1win · 25 maps
Ancientpossible decider
53%62%
FOKUS · 11 mapsedge 1win +9%1win · 17 maps
MirageFOKUS ban
50%59%
FOKUS · 6 mapsedge 1win +9%1win · 13 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
40%38%
FOKUS · 1 mapnearly even +2%1win · 12 maps
CacheFOKUS pick
75%62%
FOKUS · 4 mapsedge FOKUS +13%1win · 9 maps
Nuke1win ban
44%50%
FOKUS · 12 mapsedge 1win +6%1win · 0 maps
Inferno1win ban
44%67%
FOKUS · 5 mapsedge 1win +23%1win · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
2. Ban1win remove Nuke
3. PickFOKUS take Cache
4. Pick1win take Dust2
5. Ban1win remove Inferno
6. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (53% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct19:17
FOKUS 68%1win 32%
The model gave 68% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Anubisprediction missed13:11
FOKUS 50%1win 50%
The model gave 50% on 1win — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favorite1win · 51%
Series resultFOKUS 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2