BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#48 in the world · win 2:1series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora#6 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFOKUS ban
38%53%
FOKUS · 9 mapsedge Aurora +15%Aurora · 11 maps
Dust2FOKUS pick
64%46%
FOKUS · 10 mapsedge FOKUS +18%Aurora · 9 maps
AncientAurora ban
50%50%
FOKUS · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Aurora · 0 maps
MirageAurora ban
38%57%
FOKUS · 4 mapsedge Aurora +19%Aurora · 3 maps
OverpassAurora pick
67%67%
FOKUS · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Aurora · 2 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
50%70%
FOKUS · 0 mapsedge Aurora +20%Aurora · 6 maps
Infernopossible decider
63%50%
FOKUS · 4 mapsedge FOKUS +13%Aurora · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
2. BanAurora remove Ancient
3. PickFOKUS take Dust2
4. PickAurora take Overpass
5. BanAurora remove Mirage
6. BanFOKUS remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
FOKUS 53%Aurora 47%
The model gave 53% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
FOKUS 33%Aurora 67%
The model gave 67% on Aurora — the map was taken by Aurora.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
FOKUS 68%Aurora 32%
The model gave 68% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 87%
Series resultFOKUS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3