Stake Ranked Episode 3 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#48 in the world · win 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2CYBERSHOKE pick
60%53%
FOKUS · 6 mapsedge FOKUS +7%CYBERSHOKE · 15 maps
AncientFOKUS pick
60%63%
FOKUS · 6 mapsnearly even -3%CYBERSHOKE · 12 maps
MirageFOKUS ban
43%56%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +13%CYBERSHOKE · 12 maps
OverpassCYBERSHOKE ban
71%42%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge FOKUS +29%CYBERSHOKE · 8 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%38%
FOKUS · 4 mapsedge FOKUS +12%CYBERSHOKE · 4 maps
InfernoCYBERSHOKE ban
63%50%
FOKUS · 4 mapsedge FOKUS +13%CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
50%43%
FOKUS · 0 mapsedge FOKUS +7%CYBERSHOKE · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
2. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Inferno
3. PickFOKUS take Ancient
4. PickCYBERSHOKE take Dust2
5. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Overpass
6. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
FOKUS 54%CYBERSHOKE 46%
The model gave 54% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Overpassprediction missed7:13
FOKUS 80%CYBERSHOKE 20%
The model gave 80% on FOKUS — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
FOKUS 47%CYBERSHOKE 53%
The model gave 53% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 63%
Series resultFOKUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3