Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#48 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2FOKUS pick
60%53%
FOKUS · 11 mapsedge FOKUS +7%ex-Zero Tenacity · 15 maps
NukeFOKUS ban
36%56%
FOKUS · 7 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +20%ex-Zero Tenacity · 12 maps
MirageFOKUS ban
33%64%
FOKUS · 5 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +31%ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 maps
Cacheex-Zero Tenacity pick
71%75%
FOKUS · 3 mapsnearly even -4%ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 maps
Infernopossible decider
44%50%
FOKUS · 5 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +6%ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 maps
Overpassex-Zero Tenacity ban
63%40%
FOKUS · 4 mapsedge FOKUS +23%ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%50%
FOKUS · 8 mapsnearly even +0%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
3. PickFOKUS take Dust2
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Cache
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Overpass
6. BanFOKUS remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
FOKUS 60%ex-Zero Tenacity 40%
The model gave 60% on FOKUS — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Anubisprediction correct13:16
FOKUS 47%ex-Zero Tenacity 53%
The model gave 53% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 70%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2