Stake Ranked Episode 4 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#40 in the world · win 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HOTU#27 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
46%65%
FOKUS · 9 mapsedge HOTU +19%HOTU · 19 maps
CacheFOKUS pick
71%64%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge FOKUS +7%HOTU · 18 maps
Ancientpossible decider
54%57%
FOKUS · 9 mapsnearly even -3%HOTU · 10 maps
NukeFOKUS ban
43%69%
FOKUS · 10 mapsedge HOTU +26%HOTU · 9 maps
MirageHOTU ban
50%54%
FOKUS · 4 mapsnearly even -4%HOTU · 9 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
40%73%
FOKUS · 1 mapedge HOTU +33%HOTU · 11 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
44%50%
FOKUS · 5 mapsedge HOTU +6%HOTU · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
2. BanHOTU remove Inferno
3. PickFOKUS take Cache
4. PickHOTU take Dust2
5. BanHOTU remove Mirage
6. BanFOKUS remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (54% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
FOKUS 50%HOTU 50%
The model gave 50% on HOTU — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
FOKUS 29%HOTU 71%
The model gave 71% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
FOKUS 25%HOTU 75%
The model gave 75% on HOTU — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 59%
Series resultFOKUS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3