ROG JOURNEY Autumn 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
FOKUS#48 in the world · win 13:9series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 13:9
MTX#359 in the world · loss 9:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
44%50%
FOKUS · 12 mapsedge MTX +6%MTX · 0 maps
AncientMTX ban
47%50%
FOKUS · 11 mapsnearly even -3%MTX · 0 maps
NukeMTX ban
47%50%
FOKUS · 11 mapsnearly even -3%MTX · 0 maps
CacheMTX ban
79%50%
FOKUS · 10 mapsedge FOKUS +29%MTX · 0 maps
MirageFOKUS ban
42%50%
FOKUS · 8 mapsedge MTX +8%MTX · 0 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
63%50%
FOKUS · 4 mapsedge FOKUS +13%MTX · 0 maps
InfernoFOKUS ban
38%50%
FOKUS · 4 mapsedge MTX +12%MTX · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Inferno
2. BanMTX remove Cache
3. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
4. BanMTX remove Ancient
5. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
6. BanMTX remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
FOKUS 79%MTX 21%
The model gave 79% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 87%
Series resultFOKUS 13:9
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1