BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#48 in the world · win 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga#22 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFOKUS pick
56%69%
FOKUS · 5 mapsedge Nemiga +13%Nemiga · 9 maps
OverpassNemiga pick
67%77%
FOKUS · 2 mapsedge Nemiga +10%Nemiga · 9 maps
Dust2Nemiga ban
63%50%
FOKUS · 4 mapsedge FOKUS +13%Nemiga · 6 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%54%
FOKUS · 1 mapedge FOKUS +6%Nemiga · 9 maps
NukeFOKUS ban
43%60%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge Nemiga +17%Nemiga · 6 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
50%60%
FOKUS · 0 mapsedge Nemiga +10%Nemiga · 6 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
57%50%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge FOKUS +7%Nemiga · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
2. BanNemiga remove Inferno
3. PickFOKUS take Ancient
4. PickNemiga take Overpass
5. BanNemiga remove Dust2
6. BanFOKUS remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (60% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
FOKUS 65%Nemiga 35%
The model gave 65% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Mirageprediction missed14:16
FOKUS 53%Nemiga 47%
The model gave 53% on FOKUS — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Overpassprediction missed13:3
FOKUS 37%Nemiga 63%
The model gave 63% on Nemiga — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 56%
Series resultFOKUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3