Stake Ranked Episode 4 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#40 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga#46 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFOKUS pick
57%38%
FOKUS · 10 mapsedge FOKUS +19%Nemiga · 12 maps
Dust2possible decider
43%53%
FOKUS · 10 mapsedge Nemiga +10%Nemiga · 11 maps
NukeNemiga pick
47%55%
FOKUS · 11 mapsedge Nemiga +8%Nemiga · 7 maps
MirageFOKUS ban
50%60%
FOKUS · 4 mapsedge Nemiga +10%Nemiga · 6 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
40%73%
FOKUS · 1 mapedge Nemiga +33%Nemiga · 7 maps
CacheNemiga ban
71%43%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge FOKUS +28%Nemiga · 3 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
44%50%
FOKUS · 5 mapsedge Nemiga +6%Nemiga · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
2. BanNemiga remove Inferno
3. PickFOKUS take Ancient
4. PickNemiga take Nuke
5. BanNemiga remove Cache
6. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (43% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct14:16
FOKUS 37%Nemiga 63%
The model gave 63% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Ancientprediction missed3:13
FOKUS 71%Nemiga 29%
The model gave 71% on FOKUS — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 68%
Series resultNemiga 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2