Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#48 in the world · win 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Partizan#141 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2FOKUS pick
67%50%
FOKUS · 11 mapsedge FOKUS +17%Partizan · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%50%
FOKUS · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Partizan · 0 maps
NukePartizan pick
38%50%
FOKUS · 9 mapsedge Partizan +12%Partizan · 0 maps
OverpassPartizan ban
67%50%
FOKUS · 5 mapsedge FOKUS +17%Partizan · 0 maps
InfernoFOKUS ban
50%50%
FOKUS · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Partizan · 0 maps
MirageFOKUS ban
25%50%
FOKUS · 4 mapsedge Partizan +25%Partizan · 0 maps
CachePartizan ban
60%50%
FOKUS · 1 mapedge FOKUS +10%Partizan · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
2. BanPartizan remove Overpass
3. PickFOKUS take Dust2
4. PickPartizan take Nuke
5. BanPartizan remove Cache
6. BanFOKUS remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed16:12
FOKUS 47%Partizan 53%
The model gave 53% on Partizan — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Ancientprediction correct13:1
FOKUS 53%Partizan 47%
The model gave 53% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 84%
Series resultFOKUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2