BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#48 in the world · win 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RBLS#93 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeRBLS pick
33%57%
FOKUS · 2 mapsedge RBLS +24%RBLS · 10 maps
AncientRBLS ban
50%50%
FOKUS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%RBLS · 2 maps
Dust2FOKUS ban
40%57%
FOKUS · 1 mapedge RBLS +17%RBLS · 3 maps
InfernoFOKUS pick
67%67%
FOKUS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%RBLS · 2 maps
OverpassRBLS ban
50%50%
FOKUS · 0 mapsnearly even +0%RBLS · 4 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
50%33%
FOKUS · 0 mapsedge FOKUS +17%RBLS · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%60%
FOKUS · 0 mapsedge RBLS +10%RBLS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
2. BanRBLS remove Ancient
3. PickFOKUS take Inferno
4. PickRBLS take Nuke
5. BanRBLS remove Overpass
6. BanFOKUS remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
FOKUS 53%RBLS 47%
The model gave 53% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Dust2prediction missed13:1
FOKUS 31%RBLS 69%
The model gave 69% on RBLS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 71%
Series resultFOKUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2