CCT 2026 Europe Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#52 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Sashi#97 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFOKUS ban
44%53%
FOKUS · 12 mapsedge Sashi +9%Sashi · 15 maps
Dust2Sashi ban
43%44%
FOKUS · 10 mapsnearly even -1%Sashi · 14 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%46%
FOKUS · 12 mapsnearly even +4%Sashi · 9 maps
CacheFOKUS pick
82%63%
FOKUS · 7 mapsedge FOKUS +19%Sashi · 12 maps
InfernoSashi pick
44%67%
FOKUS · 5 mapsedge Sashi +23%Sashi · 8 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
57%67%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge Sashi +10%Sashi · 5 maps
MirageSashi ban
45%40%
FOKUS · 7 mapsedge FOKUS +5%Sashi · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
2. BanSashi remove Mirage
3. PickFOKUS take Cache
4. PickSashi take Inferno
5. BanSashi remove Dust2
6. BanFOKUS remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (50% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
FOKUS 51%Sashi 49%
The model gave 51% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
FOKUS 38%Sashi 62%
The model gave 62% on Sashi — the map was taken by Sashi.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
FOKUS 54%Sashi 46%
The model gave 54% on FOKUS — the map was taken by Sashi.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 65%
Series resultSashi 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3