NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#48 in the world · win 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
50%69%
FOKUS · 10 mapsedge SPARTA +19%SPARTA · 41 map
Miragepossible decider
45%50%
FOKUS · 7 mapsedge SPARTA +5%SPARTA · 24 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
47%45%
FOKUS · 11 mapsnearly even +2%SPARTA · 18 maps
NukeSPARTA ban
43%50%
FOKUS · 10 mapsedge SPARTA +7%SPARTA · 16 maps
CacheFOKUS pick
75%53%
FOKUS · 8 mapsedge FOKUS +22%SPARTA · 13 maps
InfernoFOKUS ban
38%53%
FOKUS · 4 mapsedge SPARTA +15%SPARTA · 13 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
57%43%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge FOKUS +14%SPARTA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
2. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
3. PickFOKUS take Cache
4. PickSPARTA take Dust2
5. BanSPARTA remove Nuke
6. BanFOKUS remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (45% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct14:16
FOKUS 29%SPARTA 71%
The model gave 71% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
FOKUS 75%SPARTA 25%
The model gave 75% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Nukeprediction missed13:6
FOKUS 43%SPARTA 57%
The model gave 57% on SPARTA — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 67%
Series resultFOKUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3