BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#48 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ursa#88 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Ursa pick
50%65%
FOKUS · 2 mapsedge Ursa +15%Ursa · 13 maps
Nukepossible decider
43%33%
FOKUS · 3 mapsedge FOKUS +10%Ursa · 11 maps
InfernoFOKUS pick
67%36%
FOKUS · 2 mapsedge FOKUS +31%Ursa · 7 maps
MirageFOKUS ban
60%55%
FOKUS · 1 mapedge FOKUS +5%Ursa · 7 maps
OverpassUrsa ban
60%38%
FOKUS · 1 mapedge FOKUS +22%Ursa · 4 maps
AncientUrsa ban
50%50%
FOKUS · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Ursa · 0 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
50%50%
FOKUS · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Ursa · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
2. BanUrsa remove Ancient
3. PickFOKUS take Inferno
4. PickUrsa take Dust2
5. BanUrsa remove Overpass
6. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (43% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct16:13
FOKUS 74%Ursa 26%
The model gave 74% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
FOKUS 33%Ursa 67%
The model gave 67% on Ursa — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 69%
Series resultFOKUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2