Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#40 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.pro#65 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Virtus.pro pick
43%62%
FOKUS · 10 mapsedge Virtus.pro +19%Virtus.pro · 22 maps
MirageFOKUS ban
50%55%
FOKUS · 6 mapsedge Virtus.pro +5%Virtus.pro · 16 maps
NukeVirtus.pro ban
44%57%
FOKUS · 12 mapsedge Virtus.pro +13%Virtus.pro · 10 maps
AncientVirtus.pro ban
53%67%
FOKUS · 11 mapsedge Virtus.pro +14%Virtus.pro · 5 maps
CacheFOKUS pick
78%64%
FOKUS · 5 mapsedge FOKUS +14%Virtus.pro · 7 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
50%42%
FOKUS · 2 mapsedge FOKUS +8%Virtus.pro · 8 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%60%
FOKUS · 2 mapsedge Virtus.pro +10%Virtus.pro · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Ancient
3. PickFOKUS take Cache
4. PickVirtus.pro take Dust2
5. BanVirtus.pro remove Nuke
6. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
DeciderOverpass (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
FOKUS 69%Virtus.pro 31%
The model gave 69% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
FOKUS 42%Virtus.pro 58%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
FOKUS 36%Virtus.pro 64%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 54%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3