European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Fortress#236 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Endless Journey#172 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFortress ban
40%63%
Fortress · 1 mapedge Endless Journey +23%Endless Journey · 4 maps
AncientFortress pick
67%50%
Fortress · 2 mapsedge Fortress +17%Endless Journey · 2 maps
InfernoEndless Journey ban
43%40%
Fortress · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Endless Journey · 1 map
Dust2Fortress ban
60%50%
Fortress · 1 mapedge Fortress +10%Endless Journey · 2 maps
OverpassEndless Journey ban
67%60%
Fortress · 2 mapsedge Fortress +7%Endless Journey · 1 map
MirageEndless Journey pick
40%60%
Fortress · 1 mapedge Endless Journey +20%Endless Journey · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFortress remove Nuke
2. BanEndless Journey remove Overpass
3. PickFortress take Ancient
4. PickEndless Journey take Mirage
5. BanEndless Journey remove Inferno
6. BanFortress remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct3:13
Fortress 28%Endless Journey 72%
The model gave 72% on Endless Journey — the map was taken by Endless Journey.
Infernoprediction missed0:13
Fortress 56%Endless Journey 44%
The model gave 56% on Fortress — the map was taken by Endless Journey.
Model check result
Model favoriteFortress · 60%
Series resultEndless Journey 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2