ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fortress#217 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inner Circle Academy#103 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Fortress ban
40%56%
Fortress · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +16%Inner Circle Academy · 23 maps
AncientFortress pick
33%50%
Fortress · 5 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +17%Inner Circle Academy · 18 maps
AnubisInner Circle Academy pick
50%57%
Fortress · 4 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +7%Inner Circle Academy · 17 maps
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
33%44%
Fortress · 5 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +11%Inner Circle Academy · 12 maps
MirageFortress ban
25%57%
Fortress · 4 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +32%Inner Circle Academy · 10 maps
Cachepossible decider
27%56%
Fortress · 7 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +29%Inner Circle Academy · 5 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
33%50%
Fortress · 5 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +17%Inner Circle Academy · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFortress remove Mirage
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. PickFortress take Ancient
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Anubis
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
6. BanFortress remove Dust2
DeciderCache (27% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct10:13
Fortress 40%Inner Circle Academy 60%
The model gave 60% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
Fortress 36%Inner Circle Academy 64%
The model gave 64% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 55%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2