ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fortress#217 in the world · win 1:0series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Noir Verse#148 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
33%50%
Fortress · 5 mapsedge Noir Verse +17%Noir Verse · 10 maps
CacheNoir Verse pick
27%58%
Fortress · 7 mapsedge Noir Verse +31%Noir Verse · 8 maps
NukeNoir Verse ban
33%50%
Fortress · 5 mapsedge Noir Verse +17%Noir Verse · 10 maps
MirageFortress ban
25%64%
Fortress · 4 mapsedge Noir Verse +39%Noir Verse · 10 maps
AnubisFortress pick
50%38%
Fortress · 4 mapsedge Fortress +12%Noir Verse · 9 maps
Dust2Fortress ban
40%50%
Fortress · 1 mapedge Noir Verse +10%Noir Verse · 12 maps
InfernoNoir Verse ban
33%33%
Fortress · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Noir Verse · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFortress remove Mirage
2. BanNoir Verse remove Inferno
3. PickFortress take Anubis
4. PickNoir Verse take Cache
5. BanNoir Verse remove Nuke
6. BanFortress remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Fortress 50%Noir Verse 50%
The model gave 50% on Fortress — the map was taken by Fortress.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 64%
Series resultFortress 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1